Thursday, November 4, 2010

Time is Not Symmetrical

Non-Equilibrium is the source of Order

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Finance requires a purpose other than it's own to evolve and every worthy purpose needs to be financed

It's the Ying and the Yang - The Purpose defines and frames your strategy.A Purpose beyond yourself - PTJ - Bill Gates - etc  The Question is how far does your purpose extend

A new Model, A new culture, a new direction ...It's about Time

Alpha Matrix Matrix Wealth Management

Define the model - then to imatated is what it is an imatation

READING LIST

Capital 4.0
Complexity and chaos
The road to serfdom
The origin of Wealth
The big short
The myth of rational markets
The (mis)behavior of markets
This time is different
Modern Times
The last man and the end of history
The clash of cultures
The Alchemy of finance
the world is flat
the world is curved
21 laws of leader ship
thriving on chaos
the ascent of money
what got you here won't get you there

macro finance and micro finance

Optimize what is... first...... and strucrure yourself to manage change as i happens because as Fg said it happens

Until you get the two working in tandem you  do not have a model for peak performance ie Virginia pension system and harvard endowment.

Unless you can say life is fully funded go for it Buffet another dimension - Maslow - Gates
Micro - finance the role of Planning

Macro the integration of main & Wall

In a capitalist system, these are parallel universes not a homegenous world. complexity

Like the harvard model one feeds the other and they both grow together. when interest oustrips groeth you know where you are in the evolutionary cycle MASLOW

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Complexity theory and strategy

Complexity theory has been used extensively in the field of strategic management and organizational studies, sometimes called "complexity strategy" or "complex adaptive organization" on the internet or in the popular press. Broadly speaking, complexity theory is used in these domains to understand how organizations or firms adapt to their environments.The theory treats organizations and firms as collections of strategies and structures. When the organization or firm shares the properties of other complex adaptive systems - which is often defined as consisting of a small number of relatively simple and partially connected structures - they are more likely to adapt to their environment and thus survive. Complexity-theoretic thinking has been present in strategy and organizational studies since their inception as academic disciplines.

Friday, October 22, 2010

the Science of complexity, chaos and competition

Modular Stories

WINNERS
Dell
Microsoft/windows
Morningstar
ebay
Computer Software

LOSERS
CitiBank / One stop selling vs Sears
Merrill Lynch / Total Merrill

Endogenous Growth Theory

From Wikipedia

In economics, endogenous growth theory or new growth theory was developed in the 1980s as a response to criticism of the neo-classical growth model. The endigenous growth theory holds that policy issues can have an impact on the long-run growth rate of an economy. For example, subsides on research and development or education increase the growth rate in some endogenous growth models by increasing the incentive to innovate.

In neo-classical growth models, the lon-run rate of growth is exogenously determined by either assuming a savings rate (the Harrod-Domar model) or a rate of techical progress (solow model).

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Nothing Beats the exercise of judgement....FT.09/07.2010

hard data soft data intuitive data -  Blink etc professionals have a feel......you can't learn in school.....experience

Friday, July 30, 2010

MAIN and WALL and the deflation Debate


Rchmond Fed

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Living In The Modular World

REVERSE ALPHA

Freddie, Fannie, GE Capital, S&L's etc produce negative alpha and piss away the money.

Business Models - if the model doesn't work regulate it - how about let it fail in the market

"Performance"  models don't have to be regulated...... same problem about kids and participation vs Competition....It's purpose is misplaced....and will become uncompetitive in the market...


An Attraction Model Regulates Itself

A predator Model Needs to be Regulated

Some organizations are performance driven.....others need to be government regulated

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

The Market Hates Uncertainty....Bernanke cautions on 'uncertain' US outlook

Ben Bernanke said the US recovery was advancing, even as the chairman of the Federal reserve acknowledged an "unusually uncertain" economic outlook and promised that the central bank was prepared to take further steps to boost  the economy if necessary.

Part of WALL Street - Create AN ILLUSION - A sales Machine - Like Selling a House nothing less nothing More

Why most fund managers underperform....The illusion of active MANAGEMENT.

For those Living in the Modular World.......

Capitalism 4.0 Is a Two tier World....and how to Balance it.....

IT's all about the Economy Stupid.

Some live in the Modern World Some live in The modular World

A two tier Economy The rich are doing just fine.....

In the Modern World you Take what you Get.....In the Modular World......

You compete for what you want........

That is the message that is not being Taught......

Some get it, Some don't and Some will get trapped in the past

The reason Many wall street execs don't get it because portfolio performance is not their business - Selling and trading is

Jack Bogle / Elliot Spitzer and the concept of moral relativism.

the Changing Role of Asset Management and The Wealth Management Model

Just look at Blackrock and Morgan Stanley.

The Changing Role of Asset Management

MW/AMPM - ADDING VALUE AT THE FRONT END

The Changing Role of Asset Management

From active management - no alpha - for the Fee

To Overlay Management - Bring me Alpha -

Wealth Management business - Some get it Some don't and some will get trapped in the past.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Cyclical recovery or evolutionary phase
Voilatility is abont a flawed strategy or plan or poor execution of it

Friday, June 25, 2010

Advanced risk management
Play it cool go back to school

Monday, May 24, 2010

Thomas Jefferson

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberities than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around (the banks) will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

Thomas Jefferson
[Attributed]
3rd president of US
1743 - 1826

ALPHA MATRIX PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

What u Get

Evolutionary phase

Need a strategy to address multiple scenarios...and we move forward. bot to capitalize on and to protect your capital

Seth Klarman - Legendary Investor

"The government is now in the business of giving bad advice". "by holding interest rates art zero, the government is basically tricking the population into going long on just about every kind of security except cash, at the price of almost certainly not getting an adquate return for the risks they are running. People can't stand earning 0% on their money, so the government is forcing everyone in the investing public to speculate."

Taken from the Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2010

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Behavioral Finance: The Role of Psychology

Behavioral Finance is a relatively recent revolution in finance that applies insights from all of the social sciences to finance. New decision-making models incorporate psychology and sociology, among other other disciplines, to explain economic and financial phenomenom, such as erratic stock price variations. Pyschological patterns such as overconfidence and perceived kinks in the value function seem to impact financial decision-making but are NOT included classical theories such as the Expected Utility Theory.

Saturday, February 27, 2010

The Financial System Needs to Evolve

How it Evolves will determine how we recover..... and who wins and who loses......

Successful Investing requires a notion of the Future

Recovering from a boom/bust cycle has two components.

1- cyclical forces

2- Evolutionary forces

We believe the second will play a much more significant rile then many realize this time around.

In the Modular 2 out of three doesn't fly.

Are you a modular Citizen...