Saturday, December 19, 2015
Saturday, November 14, 2015
Thursday, November 12, 2015
From Astrology to Astromy...From Fortune Tellers to Scientists
"ABOUT 500 YEARS ago a middle ranking church official working in an obscure part of what is now northern Poland imagined a new way to think about the workings of the universe. Before Copernicus, mankind knew that the earth sat motionless at the very centre of the universe with the sun and the stars turning around it. After Copernicus, we knew the earth was just a minor planet orbiting an unremarkable star.
What Copernicus thought about the universe was important - it turned astrology into the science of astronomy - but how Copernicus thought about the universe was immeasurably more important. Copernicus taught us how to do science. He taught us to look for simple answers to complex problems ( The essence of Modular-Finance) and he showed us the importance of using our imagination.
Copernicus was the first of the scientific revolutionaries, but he was not the last. He was followed by a long and glorious list of imitators. These copy cat revolutionaries borrowed his scientific methods and to a surprising degree also used very similar imaginative tricks to turn their own fields into sciences."
~ Hat tip ~ Geooge Cooper ~ MONEY, BLOOD AND REVOLUTION
What Copernicus thought about the universe was important - it turned astrology into the science of astronomy - but how Copernicus thought about the universe was immeasurably more important. Copernicus taught us how to do science. He taught us to look for simple answers to complex problems ( The essence of Modular-Finance) and he showed us the importance of using our imagination.
Copernicus was the first of the scientific revolutionaries, but he was not the last. He was followed by a long and glorious list of imitators. These copy cat revolutionaries borrowed his scientific methods and to a surprising degree also used very similar imaginative tricks to turn their own fields into sciences."
~ Hat tip ~ Geooge Cooper ~ MONEY, BLOOD AND REVOLUTION
From Modern to Modular....
"Finance is one of the few areas of economics in which theories and equations come straight out of academia and are almost immediately applied in the real world. The tools of Traditional finance are heavily used by investors, banks, corporate managers, and government policy makers. The decisions that ride on the back of these ideas range from billions of dollars in trading, to whether two companies will merge, to how central banks set interest rates. Thus, any claim that Traditional finance theory is wrong is an important claim indeed.
Finance theory is also unique in that it is the most empirically tested area of economics. Financial economists have an embarrassment of riches, with minute-by-minute data on the trading of tens of thousands of assets. They are also fortunate because financial markets tend to be old and keep good records, allowing economists to look at data not only at the minute-by-minute level, but also over decades. Unfortunately, as of late, all this data has not been kind to Traditional theory."
~ Hat tip ~ Eric Beinhocker, The Origin of Wealth
Finance theory is also unique in that it is the most empirically tested area of economics. Financial economists have an embarrassment of riches, with minute-by-minute data on the trading of tens of thousands of assets. They are also fortunate because financial markets tend to be old and keep good records, allowing economists to look at data not only at the minute-by-minute level, but also over decades. Unfortunately, as of late, all this data has not been kind to Traditional theory."
~ Hat tip ~ Eric Beinhocker, The Origin of Wealth
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
The Nature of Value
Investing in the Adaptive economy
~ Nick Gogerty
THIS BOOK PUTS A theory forward of how and why economic value works, starting with the first principles of tiny innovation sparks and scaling all the way up to the full scope of the economy. This story of value borrows from many other disciplines, including anthropology, ecology, psychology, math, physics, biology and sociology. Most of all, it examines how evolution's processes help us understand the economy for growth. Examining value creation through behavioral and systems thinking models will explain the ebb and flow of capital, energy, resources, knowledge, and value over time.
~ Nick Gogerty
THIS BOOK PUTS A theory forward of how and why economic value works, starting with the first principles of tiny innovation sparks and scaling all the way up to the full scope of the economy. This story of value borrows from many other disciplines, including anthropology, ecology, psychology, math, physics, biology and sociology. Most of all, it examines how evolution's processes help us understand the economy for growth. Examining value creation through behavioral and systems thinking models will explain the ebb and flow of capital, energy, resources, knowledge, and value over time.
Systemic Risk
The Dynamics of Modern Financial Systems
~ Prasanna Gai
Systemic Risk opens new ground in the study of financial crises. It treats the financial system as a complex adaptive system and shows how lessons from network disciplines - such as ecology, epidemiology, and statistical mechanics - shed light on our understanding of financial stability. Using tools from network theory and economics, it suggests that financial systems are robust-yet-fragile, with knife-edge properties that are greatly exacerbated by the hoarding of funds and the fire sale of assets by banks. This book studies the damaging network consequences of the failure of large interconnected institutions, explains how key funding markets can seize up across the entire financial system, and shows how the pursuit of escured finance by banks in the wake of the global financial crisis can generate systemic risks. The insights are then used to model banking systems calibrated to data to illustrate how financial sector regulators are beginning to quantify financial system stress.
~ Prasanna Gai
Systemic Risk opens new ground in the study of financial crises. It treats the financial system as a complex adaptive system and shows how lessons from network disciplines - such as ecology, epidemiology, and statistical mechanics - shed light on our understanding of financial stability. Using tools from network theory and economics, it suggests that financial systems are robust-yet-fragile, with knife-edge properties that are greatly exacerbated by the hoarding of funds and the fire sale of assets by banks. This book studies the damaging network consequences of the failure of large interconnected institutions, explains how key funding markets can seize up across the entire financial system, and shows how the pursuit of escured finance by banks in the wake of the global financial crisis can generate systemic risks. The insights are then used to model banking systems calibrated to data to illustrate how financial sector regulators are beginning to quantify financial system stress.
The Future of Finance....
ACCORDING TO MERRIAM WEBSTER'S, FINANCE IS "THE SYSTEM THAT includes the circulation of money, the granting of credit, the making of investments, and the provision of banking facilities."
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Modular-Finance is a Thinking Man's Game...
"The average man doesn't wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn't even wish to have to think."
Read more: The Greatest Investors: Jesse L. Livermore | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/university/greatest/jesselivermore.asp#ixzz3ld4EOEfJ
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Read more: The Greatest Investors: Jesse L. Livermore | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/university/greatest/jesselivermore.asp#ixzz3ld4EOEfJ
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook
Sunday, September 6, 2015
Ernst Strungmann Forum
Complexity and Evolution
A New Synthesis for Economics
February 1–6, 2015
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
David Sloan Wilson and Alan Kirman, Chairpersons
Program Advisory Committee
Eric Beinhocker, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, U.K.
Alan Kirman, Groupement de Recherche en Economie Quantitative d’Aix-Marseille (GREQAM), Marseille, France
Julia Lupp, Ernst Strüngmann Forum, Frankfurt, Germany
Peter Turchin, University of Connecticut and Evolution Institute, U.S.A.
Ulrich Witt, Max Planck Institute for Economics, Germany
David Sloan Wilson The Evolution Institute, U.S.A.
Goals
- To extend the theoretical foundation of economics and public policy by integrating complex systems theory and evolutionary theory
- To put a synthesis of complex systems theory and evolutionary theory to work in solving problems of basic research as well as real-world applications ranging from individual behavior to global economic systems.
Ernst Forum
Relationships among the Groups
Broadly speaking, the first group will discuss the theoretical foundations of an improved synthesis of evolutionary and complex systems theory. The other groups will explore implications of the improved synthesis to socioeconomic systems at three levels: micro (individual agent behavior), meso (institutions), and macro (economies). A sampling of societal issues that can be addressed include:
- Design features that improve the efficacy of single groups.
- How single groups combine to create larger-scale socioeconomic units (e.g., cities, corporations, nations, global systems)
- Valid and invalid formulations of the invisible hand concept.
- How can societies acquire and develop “good institutions” (and “good” cultures within institutions) that promote political stability and economic growth?
- Quality of Life from an evolutionary and complex systems perspective.
- Human attentional processes and the influence of media on the economy.
- How do human nature and cultural evolution interact in shaping individual preferences?
- Under what conditions are regulatory systems within and across levels of a multi-tier social organization functional or dysfunctional?
- What incentives are motivating, beyond monetary incentives, and when are monetary incentives counterproductive?
Group 1: Challenges in Integrating Complexity and Evolution
The physicist and Nobel laureate Murray Gell-Mann is reputed to have said “Can you imagine how difficult physics would be if atoms could think?” This statement captures the nature of complex economic systems. The lower-level units of the system—individuals and organizations—are complex in their own right, even before the complexity that results from their interactions at the level of the economic system (Beinhocker 2006). Agents that are products of genetic or cultural selection possess a very special kind of complexity that is fitness-enhancing based on the selection criteria. Systems of adaptive agents are unlikely to be adaptive at the systemic level unless they are the product of system-level selection. Somehow, models of complex economic systems must capture the essential details while remaining tractable. To understand the challenges of integrating complexity and evolution, case studies of some of the most advanced current research programs will be presented in the background papers to this group: (a) models of economic growth and innovation; (b) models of segregation in viscous and multi-group populations; (c) evolutionary modeling in biological and social systems; and (d) complex dynamics of financial markets. These case studies will help us derive generalities about the challenges of integrating complexity and evolution.
Group 2: Evolutionary Behavioral Economics
A currently vibrant area of economics is behavioral economics, which departs significantly from orthodox theory: It grounds economic theory on more realistic assumptions on human preferences and cognitive abilities as revealed by the choices they actually make, or “Homo sapiens, not Homo economicus,” as Thaler and Sunstein (2008) put it; it also conducts empirical research and experiments to better understand human preferences and abilities in order to inform theory. A long list of “anomalies” and “paradoxes” have been found in this research that are, however, only anomalous and paradoxical against the background of orthodox theory, which is basically restricted to axioms of consistency of choices. Evolutionary theory has more to say on human behavior. It can help to identify sources of “mismatch” between human genetic dispositions and behavior that is adequate in the sense of social rationality. Likewise, the complex social dynamics of preference and opinion formation that sometimes haunt collective human behavior into misconduct (e.g. under forms of “herd behavior”) need to be understood with their roots in evolved dispositions at the level of information processing and preference formation.
This group will attempt to provide a foundation for understanding such features of human behavior in the domain of economics by adopting an evolutionary and complex systems perspective. It will also interface with the Group 1 by clarifying the properties of the lowest-level agents (individuals) of multi-tier human socioeconomic systems, but will also emphasize the idea that aggregate behavior, which bears little relation to the behavior of any individual, may emerge from the interaction between these individuals. An especially important task for this group is to clarify the role that cultural evolution plays in shaping the preferences, abilities and norms of individual agents, which limits the set that can be called culturally universal. Special attention will be given to: (a) proximate mechanisms of individual behavior (neurological, endocrinological, and physiological); (b) human nature at the individual level with a focus on preferences; and (c) how preferences and norms contribute to the functioning of small groups.
Group 3: Evolution of Institutions
Human social institutions are intermediate levels of functional organization in large-scale human socioeconomic systems. They are composed of individual agents and social groups, and in turn become lower-level units of large-scale societies comprising multiple institutions. Social institutions are products of cultural evolution and their histories cannot be ignored. For example, why are some nations rich and others poor? Research suggests that economic development today has deep historical roots. Rival hypotheses focus on the role of geography, institutions, and technology in explaining the variation in the ability of different human societies to nurture productive economies. Because institutions and technologies are cultural elements, we can profitably study them from the point of view of cultural evolution. This means not only formulating theories in evolutionary terms, but also using historical data to test theories in the same way that evolutionary biologists use the paleontological record.
Another puzzle is: Why have complex societies, with elaborate governance structures and extensive division of labor, taken over Earth? What is it about complexity that makes it adaptive?
This group is charged with developing a clear set of rival theories, delineating predictions that theories make, and specifying what sort of historical data can be used to test these predictions empirically. It will interface with the other two groups by addressing intermediate levels of functional organization in large-scale socioeconomic systems. Special attention will be given to: (a) the long-term evolution of economic and social institutions; (b) what makes some institutions more adaptable and resilient to change than others; (c) the cultural evolution of markets; and (d) the cultural evolution of private property norms.
Group 4: The Adaptive Management of Complex Systems
Complex systems are inherently difficult to predict. Weather provides a classic example: it is a complex physical system that can only be forecasted with the help of enormous inputs of real-time data and an array of computer simulation models that are tested against each other. Complex human socioeconomic systems are no different, calling for an experimental and forecasting approach to policy formulation. As Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, stated: “I just think tht it is not realistic to think that human beings can fully anticipate all possible interactions and complex developments. The best approach for dealing with this uncertainty is to make sure that the system is fundamentally resilient and that we have as many fail-safes and back-up arrangements as possible” (Intl. Herald Tribune, May 17, 2010).
The best that theory can do is outline plausible alternatives, which must be tested in real-world systems. This approach is already being developed in a number of contexts, such as the management of ecological systems, where it is referred to as “adaptive management” (e.g., Allan and Stankey 2009; Swenson 2010). This group will formulate the concept of “adaptive management” in general terms and expand the number of contexts for its application. It will interface with the other three groups by creating a framework for theory development and empirical research on a diversity of real-world complex systems. Special attention will be given to: (a) case studies of adaptation and maladaptation from the past; (b) shaping innovation ecosystems; (c) incorporating complexity into policy-making; and (d) adaptive management of disasters.
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Saturday, September 5, 2015
Ernst Strungmann Forum
Two broad theoretical frameworks are increasingly being applied to the study of human socioeconomic systems: complex systems theory and evolutionary theory. Both are paradigmatic departures from the orthodox theory that dominates economics today, but they need to be further integrated with each other.
The new synthesis starts from the assumptions that humans and their social institutions are products of bio-cultural evolution and that modern economies are complex systems that require an analysis of their out-of-equilibrium dynamics. As we outline below, this Forum will develop a new synthesis and apply it to a wide variety of societal issues. Indeed, we argue that many of these issues cannot be deeply understood without such a perspective.
The two broad theoretical frameworks on which the new synthesis draws, complex systems theory and evolutionary theory, are themselves melting pots of the traditional academic disciplines (e.g., anthropology, biology, computer science, ecology, economics, genetics, neuroscience, physics, political science, psychology, sociology). However, they need to be further integrated with each other. Historically, complex systems theory developed with limited references to evolution and evolutionary theory developed with limited references to complex systems. A degree of theoretical integration has taken place during the last few decades in natural sciences, but relatively little integration has occurred in the specific context of human socioeconomic systems.
The aim of this Forum is to advance such integration and set an ambitious agenda for basic scientific research and real-world practical applications at multiple scales, from single groups to the global economy. Just as complex systems theory applies to all complex physical and living systems, and evolutionary theory applies to all living (and even some nonliving) systems, together they provide a framework that can be applied across a broad array of policy issues (some examples are provided below). The idea that a unified theoretical framework can be developed for public policy formulation is new, given the fragmented nature of current public policy formulation, but it follows directly from the generality of these two bodies of theory outside the arena of policy formulation.
Another hallmark of our approach is that policy formulation and basic scientific research will be integrated with each other. The best basic scientific research must be grounded in the study of real-world systems, which is also most relevant for addressing practical problems. Each of the working groups will be tasked with outlining an agenda that integrates basic scientific research and real-world applications.
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Modular-Finance...
Integrative Thinking Across Multiple Domains to provide innovative solutions to benefit Society...
Sunday, August 23, 2015
Good Strategy, Bad Strategy
Good Strategy Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters http://t.co/O9WNfIXkPs via @tweetingmanatee
— MainandWall™ (@MainandWall) August 23, 2015
Friday, August 21, 2015
Modular-finance lexicon term of the day....
Mittelstand....Small to middle sized companies in German speaking countries...
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Modular-Finance...
Creativity in Humor, Art, and Science Works: Arthur Koestler’s Theory of Bisociation Brain Pickings http://t.co/qK3oh7SCT1 via @brainpicker
— MainandWall™ (@MainandWall) August 19, 2015
Saturday, July 4, 2015
Einstein
The Single Most Important Element To Successful Investing http://t.co/MUS8DdgpQO
— MainandWall™ (@MainandWall) July 4, 2015
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Modular-Finance~in ~Motion...
How Albert Einstein, Steve Jobs, And Maria Popova Got More Creative http://t.co/GsYBT4j1MD
— MainandWall™ (@MainandWall) June 30, 2015
Saturday, June 27, 2015
Investors Finally Tap into U.S. Water Market
Investors Finally Tap into U.S. Water Market: The combination of droughts and floods has highlighted the troubles with the U.S.’s aging water infrastructure and opened investors’ minds to the sector.
Saturday, June 20, 2015
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
Saturday, May 30, 2015
Neuberger Berman Unites Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds
Neuberger Berman Unites Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds: Former physicist David Kupperman is tapping his scientific roots to help Neuberger Berman build out its liquid alternatives business.
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Saturday, May 23, 2015
The Power of Thinking Small in Institutional Investment
The Power of Thinking Small in Institutional Investment: Bigger is not always better when it comes to investing.
Friday, May 22, 2015
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
Friday, May 15, 2015
Thursday, May 14, 2015
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Start-ups Estimize and Kensho Take Aim at Bloomberg
Start-ups Estimize and Kensho Take Aim at Bloomberg: Ambitious, young entrepreneurs like Leigh Drogen and Daniel Nadler are looking to revolutionize the way financial research is done.
Investors Hiring: Mathematicians and Artists Need Apply
Investors Hiring: Mathematicians and Artists Need Apply: One thing that the most-emulated institutional investors have in common: a commitment to innovation and new perspectives.
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
Complexity Economice
Buttonwood: More Kirk than Spock http://t.co/esYLxtZ4Ly via @TheEconomist
— MAIN & WALL Univ (@mainandwallu) May 12, 2015
Saturday, May 9, 2015
Worldly Wisdom - The Master
Charlie Munger's favorite life hack can help anyone be more successful — by @michaeldsimmons http://t.co/4Xkevi8SUT via @bi_contributors
— MAIN & WALL Univ (@mainandwallu) May 9, 2015
Saturday, April 25, 2015
Pardon our appearance - This Site is a Work in Progress...
"Formal education will make you a living - Self education will make you a Fortune"
~ Jim Rohm
~ Jim Rohm
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Modular-Finance
A Concept that Draws from Mulitple Models and Utilizes Integrative and Strategic Thinking to Provide Innovative Solutions 2 Benefit Society...
!) Stakeholder Theory is A Tenet of Modular-Finance
...because the same thinking that got us into this mess will not get us out...AE
!) Stakeholder Theory is A Tenet of Modular-Finance
...because the same thinking that got us into this mess will not get us out...AE
Sunday, April 12, 2015
Strategy - Roger Martin
Farnam Street - http://t.co/q5aPDiqKVf via @farnamstreet
— MAIN & WALL Univ (@mainandwallu) April 12, 2015
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Monday, April 6, 2015
Sunday, April 5, 2015
MainandWallU
MAIN & WALL University
HomeSchool for StreetSmarts, Worldy Wisdom & Modular-Finance™
Breath and Depth of Knowledge combined with Integrative and Design Thinking...
HomeSchool for StreetSmarts, Worldy Wisdom & Modular-Finance™
Breath and Depth of Knowledge combined with Integrative and Design Thinking...
Friday, April 3, 2015
Coach K Explains Modular-Finance
The new Role of Quinn Cook in their system is a Great example of Modular-Finance....
Look Deep into Nature ane then You will understand everything Better...
This makes us not only better leaders, better citizens, better parents, spouses, and friends.
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Monday, March 23, 2015
In The World of Finance - We Don't Need More Quants.......
We don’t need more STEM majors. We need more STEM majors with liberal arts training. http://t.co/svr7qSYxEh
— MainandWall™ (@MainandWall) March 9, 2015
Saturday, March 21, 2015
Modular-Finance in Motion™
MAIN & WALL OnLine™ : Investors Hiring: Mathematicians and Artists Need ... http://t.co/ZzQNbRIIG2
— MainandWall™ (@MainandWall) January 6, 2015
Friday, March 13, 2015
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