Monday, March 21, 2011

Farnham Street.....Risk, Trust and the Arrogance of Numbers.....

Projections based soley on History lead to Ruin. Projectionsseduce us into a false sense of security. We don't know what is behind them, what assumptions they make, and yet we take great comfort in the precision of the numbers they proffer.

The recent earthquake exceeded the engineering assumptions by a long shot. What was supposed to happen once in a million years took only eight....

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