Scenarios of Structural Change

1- Endgame

2- George Friedman

3- David Hale

4- How the West was Won

5- That Used to be us

6- INET

Homework Times Two .........Thomas Friedman

Never be Smarter than the Story....

When the story is Speaking Shut up and Listen.......

Market

Orgel's Rules

Book Store Reading List...

UnderConstruction....

Concepts and tenets of Modular Finance.....

Triangulation - Three sides to every story - and every person has one - stocks have a story too - the bull case the bear case and the market price.....

Bifurcation

Emergence

Reflexivity

Chaos Theory

Complexity

Asymmetrical Math

Cognitive Biases

Turbulence

Robust/fragile States

Second Law of Thermodynamics

ModularFinance - The Interaction of Intelligance - Capital and Culture in organic Systems...

AND THE CLOUD - THE BUTTERFLY - FAT TAILS - THE UNKOWN - AND THE WORLD OF INFINITE POSIBILITIES

Players in the Game

Intelligence Providers / New Thinking
IBM

Andrew Lo

Sante FE Institute

INET

Technology Providers

Advisor Software


Custodians
Schwab, fidelity, TD Ameritrade


Product Providers
Etf's

Hedgefunds

Understanding the Limitations of Modern Finance - Thomas Sargent

The "Rational expectations approach" and other techniques of modern finance don't yet capture economic reality. How do people really think, as individuals and in a market? How should we account for changes in expectations as people learn? How should we incorporate human thinkinking more realistically into economic models?

NYT 12/04.2001

The Age of Authenticity......

Harvard MBA - FIELD

fiels immersion experiences for  leadership development

Thomas Sargent


Adaptive Learning

Exogenous Shocks are not exogenous they are created by the reflexive and emergent properties of the system and thus endogenous in nature and a product of the system

Traditional Economics Ignores this behavior of systems and thus fails to recognize it's origin...

The Second Law of Thermodynamics - Entropy

Arcadia

A door like this has cracked open five or six times since we got up on our hind legs. It's the best posible time to be alive, when almost everything you thought you knew is wrong.

- Ton Stoppard, Arcadia

Evolution of Capitalism

The Future of Investing

Benchmark Investing no Longer defines the investment world

It All About EMERGENT SYSTEMS.......

The interesting thing about MAIN & WALL is that we are not really 20years ahead of the curve it is that retail is 20yrs behind the curve

most businesses operate on the platform and principles of of Modern Finance---

Economies and financial markets operate on the Principles of Modular Finance ...

May be overused but illustrates the point Modern finance Skating to the Puck Assumes stationary - modular - wher the puck is going - emergence of the play....

New Economic Thinking

Behavorial Economics

INET - Institute for New Economic Thinking

Modular Economics

Economic Stories

Evolutionary Theory

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives, it is the one that is most adaptable to change......

The World of Modern Finance is being ReExamed....ie Financial Times the Future of Investing

From INEt to This and That we are here to bring It To you......Modular World Adapt Faster....

Modular Finance - The Study Of Complex Adaptive Financial Systems......

Complexity - genetic makup - environment -

Making Decisions and Policies based on Flawed Assumptions and outdated Thinking and Models....

Only perpetuates and exacerbates the problems....

The Work is being done - new tools and models are being developed...

It is our job to Bring them to You vs Others who are Now Trapped in the Past in The Commoditized World the Bought Into To....We are on Our Way - too bad for those who Made the Wrong Turn.....

Some Jobs Require Unique Experience in addition to Specific Knowledge - This Is Called Domain Knowledge

The Role of Modular Finance in Democracy......

Narrow Banking/Investment banking/Asset Management/Organic Growth(needs to be rewarded)

Transfer Systems and Sponsored Work......R&D

Corner/buy The Current Business/model or Capture the Market....You can't get There from Here...

Business Strategies:

Dell

Whole foods

Sears

IBM

ESPN

Starbucks

Mr Timkins

CITI/BAC/Mer

What Brain Science Tells Us:

Unity of Purpose

JP MORGAN - Two Purposes

Compete - Adapt - Evolve -

Evolution:

the ability to Differentiate - Select - Amplify

Adapt

Loosely Coupled Dynamic Systems - Trial and Errror

Evolvution is defined by Unity of Purpose

Competition is Inate

Competition is the Name of the Game......

Mediocrity is the New A+ in American Culture

The Mind and Mind Set of the Professional Investor - What can We Learn....

Bufrfet

Market Wizards

The Big Short

The Billion Dollar Mistake

Reminisces of a Stock Operator

Unconventional Wisdom

It's no secret the Current financial is A Flawed Model when it Come sto It True Purpose..

Thinking outside the Box.......

Broken Plans


etc etc
Shareholder Value

Main & WALL create to bring this to our Clients

Advance the Realm of Portfolio Management.......

and advance Financial Planning thinking to Where in can Become A legitimate Profession.

Everyone moving into "wealth Management" is Falling into the Trap

The Technology is there, the demend is there the people are there.....

Take Care of the Marketing....Separate the Marketing

Define what an advisor should be......That is the Role

The Purpose of MWu is to analyze and capture new ideas and bring them to the forefront faster

markets are a reflection of Life just like People

Study Systems robust/Healthy Systems not Sick ones or oncomplete ones

The Retail World is Operating under a false set of Assumptions...When it comes to Investing....

Set Up School.... Back to School Night,,, Sponsored by MAIN & WALL University

An Alpha Matrix adds to the Baseline not subtracts from it......

UpSide Literally - Ferguson Report

Because of thisDevolution - The Financial Services Industry is 20 years behing the curve with their model

Investing is no longer the Domain of the Product Houses but....it is a knowledge based business...


They have it completely Upside down......PT Barum was right but the flaw in that assumption is that people do get Smarter and Move On then you have to find a new One....Hit em Right betweeb the Eyes...

When it comes to the industry everyone now knows "it" they just don't know where the next Level is .... PROVIDE the NEXT LEVEL

One of the Goals of the Modular World is to Clean Up The MUDDY Waters That The Industry Presents

The Universal Baking Model Took The Entire Industry In the Wrong Direction and nearly brought down the System itself

Think Sears vs a shopping Mall with your Lulumons and whatever (evolution) that is a Modular Approach

This presents tremendous opportunities Going Forward as the Market not the Government will now restructure the System going Forward ie. Meridith Whitney W/credit Ratings etc.Main & WALL with Welth Managemenr. Complexity not homogenous/ incestuous is the Natural progression of business...

Restructuring the Banking System will not be the Result of Regulation....

BECAUSE THE EXISTING MODEL IS COMPLETELY DYSFUNCTIONAL........DELICIOUS


It will be the result of innovation and Competition.....

Therin Lies the Opportunity.....Financial restructuring Fund

What have we learned , What have we Solved - Unfortunately Very Little.....ATBPO

Opportunity #1

Financial Services Resttructure/Evolution Fund

Building Alpha Products takes a different Mindset

The (mis)Allocation of Capital results from cover your ass strategies instead of Intelligent decision Making....

For Example End of the Quarter Windoe Dressing....


The Old Joke - What wrrong with IBM? instead of Why did you buy it in the First Place

Tools for better decision making

Portfolio Management Requires Critical Thinking....This is Missing at the Sales Level....

We call this Required DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE

A Beta Matrix Only Adapts To Price Not Value

Take On A life of Its Own - Delinate

The Us economy is going thru a Transition Phase -

Beta is Being Replaced and Repriced  - It's that Simple...

In the Knowledge Realm - There are no tasks/jobs where you get hired and they tell you what to do - all those jobs have been automated

Unless you can add value to something you are out of Work

NEW COURSE: Translating Financial Gibberish....Fortunes have Been Made and Lost in the Translation.....

Complex Adaptive Systems......The Richness of Life Itself...

In the Modular Worl - Life is Complex and Dynamic MWUniv Study and hepl you Understand Complexity and Dynamic Systems




Sports
Markets
Music

Shared Knowledge Uva Thing

Knowledge Realms

Known/Knowns - wHAT WE DO kNOW

unknown/Knowns - wHAT WE dON'T kNOW

Unknown/ Unkowns - wHAT WE HAVEN'T tHOUGHT OF

We are in the Midst of Economic Evolution 10.0...........

It is the combination of Capitalism 4.0......Globalization 3.0........Banking 2.0........Humanity 1.0......

The Purpose of MWU - To explore the Cognitive Biases and Assumptions the Go into decision Making

Aristotle Was Wrong...Think About That.....

Farnham Street.....Risk, Trust and the Arrogance of Numbers.....

Projections based soley on History lead to Ruin. Projectionsseduce us into a false sense of security. We don't know what is behind them, what assumptions they make, and yet we take great comfort in the precision of the numbers they proffer.

The recent earthquake exceeded the engineering assumptions by a long shot. What was supposed to happen once in a million years took only eight....

The Motor Boat Only Comes Once and Three Strikes and Your Out.....

In The End ( BASKERBALL And personal) Development -

You ae a part of the is systems of systems Jordan but must play within it and be part of it to make it better ie Win - Sports as a metaphor, a reflection , an example of life itself. Ego can stop your evolution and your focus of  and development and talent because you stop serving a purpose within the system this is a vital role
yOU MUST FUNCTION WITHIN IT NOT BE IT TO EXPAND IT......ON ALL LEVELS....THE LESSON OF THE FAB 5 - FRACTALS and SCALING
The butterfly in the rain forest we are all components of a system that is part of a bigger system.

Everyone is Wrong

It's not posible to Know Everything - The Market reflects the Prevailing Bias - Things Don't Matter til They Matter - Then they Have to Adjust - and the Band Plays on....

The Next Frontier

Modern Finance is Efficient at the Micro Level, but inefficient at the Macro Level

This is the Next Frontier

Sophisticated Stationary Thinking - The Age of the PC and Math - and MPC - Craps

Sophisticated Dynamic Thinking - Incorporates Advancing Knowledge........Like Poker

A Dynamic System requires Triple Bottom Line accounting to Manage Effectively

So does a ficuciary model

At the current pace of financial Evolution most will not see this in their lifetime

A dynamic that is created because it is bonded by unity of purpose vs tethered by need and incentives

Unity of Purpose

and a dynamic system to achieve

MPT Has unity of purpose - But is exists in a vacuum

Tethered Capital,Bonded Relationships,Property Rights, Statesmanship - and Stewardship

The NEED and ROLE of Capital -

The Use and Abuse

The Origin of Wealth - The Creation of Capital
The Allocation of Capital - The Use and Abuse of Capital

The MAIN & WALL Manifesto


vs rulers and  bankers  political and financial fiduciaries and the captains of each squad

Not Dictators and Bankers - who roles are nebulous ill defined - and often autocratic and self serving

A Jeffersonian Approach - To Dynamic Capitalism

This is invisible force that drives the invisible man and determines the work of his invisible hand

Statesmanship - Was to be viewed as a Noble Endeavor not a financially rewarding occupation
Srewardship -  A fiduciary responsibility not a licence to catitalize on ignorance

There are other productive roles for this purpose

When these roles are confused the system loses its dynamism

Complexity Economics

Complexity economics is the application of complexity science to the problems of economics. It is one of the four C's of a new paradigm surfacing in the field of economics. The four C's are complexity, chaos, catastrophe and cybernetics. This new mode of economic thought rejects traditional assumptions that imply that the economy is a closed system that eventually reaches an equilibrium. Instead, it views economies as open complex adaptive systems with endogenous evolution. Complex systems do not necessarily settle to equilibrium--even ideal deterministic models may exibit chaos, which is distinct from both random ( nondeterministic) and analytic behavior.

Cybernetics - Teleology - Hegel

Systems Theory
Game Theory
Perceptual Control Theory
Sociology
Psychology
    neuropyschology
    behavioral psychology
    Cognitive psychology
Philosophy
Architecture
Organizational Theory
  

Normalcy Bias

Cognitive Bias

TRADING MARKETS

Behavioral Psychology, statistics, cognitive biases, history, data analysis, mathematics, brain physiology, evolution theory

POINT NUMBER 1

THIS MAY LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC CYCLICAL RECOVERY BUT IT IS NOT

IT IS A MANUFACTURED ONE - THERE IS A VERY BIG DIFFERENCE

"It's What you Learn after you know it all that matters"

AND SOME THINGS WE WILL NEVER KNOW

The Future of Investing - FT.com/

The Evolution of Capitalism - Capital 4.0 / The New Capitalist Manifesto

The PURPOSE:

The Economic World is Changing Soros sets up INEt, Behavioral cience Hedge Funds Etf 's Etc

MAIN & WALL U WAS SET UP TO BE PART OF THIS PROCESS, involved and defining

MACROS MATTER

"A man who has committed a mistake and doesn't correct it is committing another mistake."

- Confucius

The Modern World of finance came to an end on September 15, 2008

It's reality was an illusion. A month later Alan Greenspan the .

"IT's What You Learn After You Know it All that Counts"

John Wooden

It's No Secret ANYMORE - MODERN FINANCE CONTAINS SERIOUS FLAWS

Any Organization That is Not Spending The Money or The TIME to Build New Models - Is On There Way OUT. \
Some get it
Some Don't
And some Will disappear

Capitalism is a culture that creates Endogenous Genetic Compression and therefore Evolves

Socialism Does NOT

Hayek

It takes pressure to Compress something
It's the spatial tention the stone in the shoe

Dissonance

ie. Where Innovation ( evolution) Comes naturally - new add for ireland

CAPITALISM 4.0

Redefining the role between the Private and Public sectors in both the real world and financial world.

and the Difference between Micro Finance ( the present) and Macro finance (the Future)
Understanding What we Know and what we don't know

"GET OFF OF MY CLOUD"